Transit's Cold Equations

Many people whine that Americans are "too attached to their cars". We put in bus lines, and then wonder why they don't a) make money, or b) get ridden at all. They wail "but it's cheaper than driving!". The problem is, it isn't - when you use the real rider's calculations.

The true cost of transportation isn't just gas or fares - it's time, gas, and fares. Now, some say "but time is free, it doesn't have a cost!". These people need to try hiring a lawyer - they charge by the minute. And just as legal services have a dollar value, so does transit time, when it comes to the total cost of transportation.

Buses are slow. Transfers often involve long waiting. For a low income individual, the "value" of their time spent waiting and riding, plus the fares, are far less than a driving a car would cost them. Same with people who are on disability, social security or a retirement pension.

Now look at an urban professional. Suddenly, spending an hour to go 5 miles for a $2.50 fare is ridiculous, compared to 30 minutes and $5.00 in gas, insurance and upkeep (GIU). Note: the current federal mileage reimbursement rate is only $0.505/mile, so I'm actually putting it higher, $1/mile, than the feds, for realism. Sure the apparent cost of $5.00 is twice that of transit, but the time is 1/2! To figure the real cost, take the following equation:
   $Total_cost = $fare(s) + $GIU + ($rate/hour x time_hours)

For the first case - base level wage
   $2.50 + $0 + ($10.00 x 1.0) = $12.50 by transit
   $0 + $5.00 + ($10.00 x 0.5) = $15.00 by car

For the second case - low level professional
   $2.50 + $0 + ($40.00 x 1.0) = $42.50 by transit
   $0 + $5.00 + ($40.00 x 0.5) = $25.00 by car

That's bad. Now, make the trip longer: 20 miles, 2.5 hours by bus, 1 hour by car
For the first case - base level wage
   $2.50 + $0 + ($10.00 x 2.5) = $27.50 by transit
   $0 + $20.00 + ($10.00 x 1.0) = $30.00 by car

For the second case - low level professional
   $2.50 + $0 + ($40.00 x 2.5) = $102.50 by transit
   $0 + $20.00 + ($40.00 x 1.0) = $60.00 by car

Now, take a fast train system - dedicated right of way, well spaced stops. Both subjects drive to the station 2 miles away and park (15 min), the destination is 20 miles away - 30 minutes train time. Fare is $10.
For the first case - base level wage
   $10 + $2 + ($10.00 x 0.75) = $19.50 by transit
   $0 + $22.00 + ($10.00 x 1.25) = $34.50 by car

For the second case - low level professional
   $10 + $2 + ($40.00 x 0.75) = $42.00 by transit
   $0 + $22.00 + ($40.00 x 1.25) = $72.00 by car

See where the tipping point is? The plain fact shown by this type of analysis is that unless transit is time competitive with driving, the only people who will use it are those whose time is of low value.